As I was working away today on an LLC investment for a client, I got an email alert from Google informing me that the DOW dropped 900 pts in a matter of minutes. With nothing online but a few headlines, I decided to see what CNN had to say. At the time, the media were still trying to figure out what caused the drop. Even Wall Street was trying to make sense of what was happening.
It's rumored that a trader accidentally put in an order to sell billions of P&G shares instead of a millions. (Millions of P&G, really?) This created an unexpected 30-40 pt drop in the P&G stock price, which combined with a protest in Greece that got out of hand, triggered a market free fall. Pre-set trading instructions were initiated by P&G's drop, which then caused the DOW to drop, which then caused other triggers to initiate, which then....well, you get the drift. This free fall caused the DOW to drop 700 pts in 15 minutes! The market recovered quickly, also propelled by automated instructions and ended with a more "manageable" loss of only 350 points for the day. While that still represents a 3.2% drop in value, most felt pretty relieved that the losses weren't even more staggering.
The 1000 point drop in the DOW, or nearly 10% of its value, happened and then recovered in a matter of hours. That is a breathtaking display of the market's volatility and reminded me of one the attributes that I like most about real estate. Real estate is a slow moving index. In fact, it's near-impossible for real estate to drop, or rise, quickly or unexpectedly. Even when the bubble burst in 2007 and real estate in some markets lost 40+%, it happened over a period of years, not hours. Conversely, real estate will also take years to recover, while the stock market might make up today's losses in a matter of minutes tomorrow morning. Again, the stock market is far more volatile.
When we recommend using real estate to diversify a retirement portfolio, we're attempting to hedge against more than the direction in which different markets move. We're also trying to hedge against the speed in which different markets move. Real estate is methodical, lumbering, glacial. Stocks are comets streaking across the investment horizon. Real estate helps to keep a retirement portfolio grounded and can help limit the radical swings.
For example, if you had a retirement portfolio that was worth $100K and was split evenly between real estate and stocks, today's 3.2% drop would have merely been a 1.6% hiccup. And if you factor that the real estate actually earned money today due to rent payments and a days worth of appreciation, the decline is slightly less. Again, holding real estate also limits the upside growth when a big day in the market happens. But diversification is about limiting the losses not maximizing the gains. Real estate fills that role ideally within most retirement portfolios.
Stock prices are measured by the minute for a reason. So the next time the DOW, the S&P or the NASDAQ makes a radical movement and the volatility has your stomach twisted into knots, think about shifting some of your holdings into real estate. It may be boring and staid, but it's also proven and stable.
